DUBAI — The GCC power sector needs greater flexibility if it is to effectively integrate renewables into its electricity generation infrastructure, according to one of the world’s leading energy market consultants.

Brendan Cronin, Head of Management Consulting Middle East, AFRY was speaking ahead of his participation in the thought leadership plenary sessions of the first Middle East Energy conference, which will run at the Dubai World Trade Centre from March 3-5 as part of the global energy event.

Cronin says wind and solar PV are now the cheapest source of electricity due to falling module and turbine prices, strong competition and low capital costs.

“There have been further falls in PV module costs and a shift to bifacial technology which has driven solar PV tender prices well below $20/MWh in tenders in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia,” he explained.

Cronin pointed to the GCC’s wind resources being largely focused on Oman and Saudi Arabia and added: “load factors of 40% are possible in some areas which is pushing prices down to levels comparable to solar PV.”

Though wind and solar renewables look attractive from a cost perspective, their integration will require considerable flexibility within the GCC’s existing electricity system. Cronin points to the need for ancillary service provision, an ability to curtail solar output during period of low system inertia and integrated generation and network planning.

He added: “New forecasting and communication tools will need to be developed. Grid codes will need to be updated. We are also very excited by the potential for greater demand-side participation to be used to better integrate of renewables”.

AFRY contends that system operation challenges will be the major challenge in the GCC’s development and deployment of wind and solar PV resources and experience from other markets suggests this will take time to overcome.

“Renewable integration will require an extensive program of change ... it will be a continuous journey of improvement rather than a one-off event,” said Cronin. “The program will need to be developed over the next 10 years.”

Cronin will join Paul McCusker, Vice President-EMEA of global energy storage and services company Fluence and Rasheed Sulaiman, Digital & MYA Leader, GE Steam Power at the plenary session. The trio will explore the challenges that wind and solar PV bring to the GCC’s system operation and the role that energy storage can play, how best to evaluate alternative options to add power system flexibility and the necessary regulatory changes required.

Six free-to-attend thought leadership plenary sessions will feature over 40 local, regional and international speakers, including representatives from the region’s utility providers. Together they will provide over nine hours of strategic dialogue on the issues at the core of the long-term development of the region’s power sector.

“The plenary sessions will be complemented by a Renewables Conference and the highly focused Digitalisation in Energy Conference,” explained Claudia Konieczna, Exhibition Director, Middle East Energy, which was formerly known as Middle East Electricity. “Together these three forums represent a powerful knowledge platform for all in the industry with over 30 conference sessions and more than 150 speakers providing up to 25 hours of insightful learning.”

Digitalization and Renewables also come in for added focus at the event being among its five dedicated product sectors which also include Power Generation, Transmission & Distribution and Energy Consumption & Management. More than 1,300 exhibitors from over 130 countries are due at the show which is expected to attract up to 48,000 attendees. — SG