By Guy JACKSON
THE French presidential election that could propel far-right leader Marine Le Pen to power has sustained a series of jolts — and one of her main rivals is now fighting to stay in the race.
Europe’s shift to the right, the victory of Brexit in Britain and Donald Trump’s ability to win over American voters form the backdrop to a contest being watched closely around the world.
In France itself, the context is highly unusual — Francois Hollande is the first French president since 1958 to renounce a bid for a second term, after a trouble-plagued five years in power.
An already unpredictable contest has taken a new turn with mounting accusations that conservative candidate Francois Fillon had used public funds available to MPs to pay his wife and children hundreds of thousands of euros for “fake jobs”.
Fillon, 62, a deeply Catholic former prime minister who snatched the Republicans nomination by campaigning as a man of integrity, was the long-time frontrunner.
Now embroiled in accusations made by the Canard Enchaine newspaper, critics are beginning to wonder aloud if he can carry on.
A poll Wednesday showed for the first time that Fillon would crash out in the first round of voting, on April 23.
“I will be a candidate,” he insisted Wednesday after he was mobbed by reporters at an ordinarily routine campaign appearance.
Fillon had earlier told lawmakers of his Republicans party that he was the target of an unprecedented smear campaign. “We know where this affair comes from, it comes from the government, it comes from the left,” he said, according to those at the closed-doors meeting.
The main beneficiary of Fillon’s woes is centrist Emmanuel Macron, the photogenic 39-year-old former investment banker who served as economy minister in Hollande’s cabinet — and irritated some colleagues with his raw ambition.
Macron is rising fast, but his program remains short on detail.
It is early days, but the survey published Wednesday, of 1,053 people by the Elabe group, showed Macron would reach the second round and face Le Pen in a runoff.
Le Pen, however, is the main reason that Europe is holding its breath ahead of May’s presidential result.
The 48-year-old has worked hard to try to give her National Front (FN) party a softer image after her father, Jean-Marie, repeatedly described the Nazi gas chambers as a mere “detail of history”.
She senses her chance to seize power, riding a wave of suspicion of mainstream politics.
Le Pen wants to pull France out of the EU — a potentially mortal blow for the ailing bloc — and her proposals to give French nationals priority over housing, for example, still raise hackles for many.
Yet the party is a slicker, more media-savvy operation than when her rabble-rousing father reached the presidential runoff in 2002, only to lose to Jacques Chirac.
But polls currently show she wouldn’t win the second-round runoff in May, as voters switch to her opponent.
Le Pen has her own expenses troubles at the European Parliament, which is demanding that she repay 300,000 euros ($323,000). — AP
