It took more than two years but Lebanon finally has a new president. The Lebanese parliament’s election of Michel Aoun ends a 29-month presidential vacuum. Over that period, the Lebanese parliament held 45 votes in an attempt to find a successor to Michel Suleiman. However, all of the votes failed because rival factions blocked one another. On one side is Hezbollah and its ally the March 8 Alliance, which is supported by Iran. On the other side is the pro-Western March 14 Alliance. Because Lebanon’s political system is based on denominational proportionality, the presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the speaker of parliament a Shiite Muslim.
Under this sectarian power-sharing system and in the middle of two opposing alliances, it’s a wonder a president was named. The election was made possible by a deal between Aoun and Saad Al-Hariri, the son of the former Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri. The breakthrough for Aoun came when Al-Hariri, the leader of March 14, endorsed him. Days before the election, it became known that Al-Hariri, who served as prime minister from 2009 to 2011, had backed away from his declared principles and would see to it that Aoun emerged as the election victor. In return, Aoun named Al-Hariri prime minister, and has asked him to form a new government after he secured the support of a majority of MPs.
The deal will bring this uneasy alliance closer together at least for now. Yet Al-Hariri’s decision to publicly endorse Aoun carries political risks. Aoun is extremely disliked by Al-Hariri’s supporters, and his election may be seen as a victory for Hezbollah and its role in Syria.
It is the Syria question, more than any other, that highlights the divide in opinion between Al-Hariri and his archenemy, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Al-Hariri wants Hezbollah to get out of the war in neighboring Syria and turn over its weapons. Moreover, Al-Hariri accuses Hezbollah of having been involved in the 2005 murder of his father. It is uncertain how Aoun will react to the situation now that he is partnered with Al-Hariri, yet remains a friend of Hezbollah.
Hezbollah has been very squarely backing Aoun for president and this was always the deal between Aoun’s party and Hezbollah. Hezbollah has upheld its end of the deal. With this election, Hezbollah’s position will be consolidated in terms of its political allies as well as its position in Lebanon.
Although work in the current government has been repeatedly halted by differences of opinion over the last two years, Hezbollah’s veto power in the Lebanese parliament and its rejection of various possible candidates is mostly to blame for why Lebanon did not have a president for so long. Although Hezbollah has representation in parliament, its involvement in the conflicts in Syria and Iraq, its actions as a militia separate from the Lebanese national army and its use of military power against its opponents have all resulted in the Gulf Cooperation Council labeling it a terrorist movement.
The next challenge will be forming a government and that is expected to take months of wrangling. The parliament that elected Aoun has twice extended its own mandate, avoiding elections because of disagreements over a new electoral law. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for next year but whether they will be held is something else.
Lebanon today has lost the title it once held, the “Bride of the Middle East”. It is no longer a popular destination for tourism. Its future will depend on how the new cabinet comes together, and whether it can really bring forth problem-solving initiatives and then implement them. Hence the presidential election is just the first step on a long journey with an uncertain outcome.
