Dr. Khaled M. Batarfi
In Istanbul, last week, I had the opportunity to discuss Saudi-Turkish relations with many politicians, academics, and media persons. Over Turkish coffee and delights, we reviewed Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir’s visit to Ankara last week and the press conference with his Turkish counterpart Feridun Sinirlioğlu.
My friends seemed to think the visit was highly significant and invited me to a conference and a few radio and TV appearances to discuss the obvious and hidden meanings and messages. Saudi Arabia, for them, is a regional superpower, a leader of the Muslim world, and a vital partner. Any move taken by the Kingdom is highly and studied deeply.
They fondly remember King Salman’s last visit, as the Crown Prince and defense minister, to Turkey in 2013. During the visit, mega cooperation agreements were signed. They included the setting up of military and industrial manufacturing projects, in both countries, and other mega deals in other economic sectors. The two countries affirmed their agreement on the Syrian crisis. They also discussed the Iranian nuclear file, Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories, especially, Jerusalem, and Jewish violations in Al-Aqsa Mosque.
The very same issues were discussed in the recent visit of Al-Jubeir. Our world, it seems, has not changed much in three years!
I told my hosts what they already hoped for — and celebrated — that Saudi Arabia also regards highly its relationship with Turkey. In the absence of the leadership roles of Egypt, Syria and Iraq, and in the aftermath of the so-called “Arab Spring,” Iran has no equal to reckon with in the Middle East except Saudi Arabia and Turkey. A strong alliance between the two powerful Sunni states would certainly balance the power scale, and give a pause to the Farsi state’s irresponsible behavior.
Now that Russia is joining the game, the need for coordination and partnership between Turkey and Saudi Arabia cannot be overestimated. Syria is a next-door neighbor, sending some 2-5 millions to refugee camps in Turkey, collaborating with its enemies, Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and Daesh (so-called IS), and threatening its security.
As a political solution seems closer to hand than ever, with the Bashar Al-Assad army in disarray and the regime sponsors in Tehran more receptive to end-game political solutions, here comes the Russian bear with all its typical heavy feet and hammers, to renew the regime's hopes of a lifeline, even if it proves to be artificial and short.
It didn’t matter to the new alliance of Russia, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Daesh, Hezbollah and Israel that the heavy civilian and civic cost is continuing — with more than half the population (11 million) displaced, and the country in ruin — as long as Assad, like Roman Emperor Nero, can stay on longer to watch his country burn, divided and occupied.
For Russia and Iran, it is a matter of to be or not to be. The key to the gates of their geopolitical ambitions is in the hands of one man. He, alone, can allow them to occupy and rule his nation, and serve their military and economic interests under some sort of legitimacy.
Iran cannot link Lebanon to Iraq and its territory, and reach the Mediterranean Sea without hands and feet in Syria. Without Assad, Russia would lose its base (the one and only outside the motherland), and billions worth of petrol, gas and mineral treasures.
More over, the ego of the ex-superpower, who bled badly in all its wars from Afghanistan (1978-1988), Chechnya (1999-2000,) Georgia (2008) to Ukraine (2015,), needs an astounding victory and a show of military might in Syria. At last, they would have the chance to win a major battle against the US-led West’s NATO. A win would boost their bargaining power in Ukraine and elsewhere.
Unfortunately for us and them, the new alliance of Russia, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Daesh, Hezbollah and Israel underestimates the resolve and staying power of the Saudis, Turks, and the Syrian resistance. Victory will eventually be ours, no doubt, but the price would be very steep for all, especially the Syrian people. The West will have to pay its share too. Some 1.5 million additional refugees are expected to seek refuge in Europe and America. Even more are expected to reach Syria’s immediate neighbors, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, and other regional countries, mainly Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Gulf States.
On the other hand, Iran, Russia, Israel and China are not willing to take their share of refugees or pay for their accommodation in other countries. Most of their shipments consist of arms and ammunition, but hardly shelter, food or medicine. Their participation in the international aid agencies is close to zero.
The unity of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, I agreed with my Turkish hosts, is all the more crucial today in the face of the new evil axes. The Muslim and Arab world has pinned its hopes in saving the region from total destruction and foreign occupation on Saudi-Turk unity. Hopefully, other Muslim and Arab major players will join in. Pakistan, I hope, is the first!
Dr. Khaled M. Batarfi is a Saudi writer based in Jeddah. He can be reached at kbatarfi@gmail.com. Follow him at Twitter:@kbatarfi
