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Global oil demand to rise 5.3% in 2015

Last updated: Sunday, August 05, 2012 1:17 AM

JEDDAH – The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised estimates for global oil demand to 2015 after a swifter-than-expected economic rebound.

Worldwide consumption will increase by 5.3 percent to 92.9 million barrels a day in the 2015, led by emerging Asian economies, OPEC said in its annual World Oil Outlook. The 2015 estimate is 1.9 million barrels more than last year’s forecast. Still, Europe’s debt crisis and slowing US growth pose risks, the group said.

Consumption growth will be led by emerging economies in Asia. Demand in China will increase by 21 percent to 11.6 million barrels a day, from 9.6 million this year, it said. Demand in the industrialized nations that compose the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will be little changed in the period, estimated at 46 million barrels a day in 2015.

Supplies from outside the organization, including non- conventional oil and natural gas liquids, will increase "steadily" to 2015, rising 4.5 percent to 55.3 million barrels a day as output from the Caspian Sea, Brazil and Canada compensates for the decline of conventional crude exports from the North Sea and Mexico, according to the report.

However, in its monthly report in July, OPEC said the daily average demand for crude will slow down in 2013, noting that its current production will be enough to handle the demand for 2013 and if there is any growth in demand it will be aptly handled by non-OPEC producers.

OPEC which produces a third of global oil, blamed Europe’s debt crisis, a weak US economic recovery, and slow growth in emerging markets like India and China as the likely reason for the expected fall in demand.

“Besides the euro zone crisis, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the contraction of manufacturing in the US for the first time since 2010 and decelerating economic growth in emerging markets have been fuelling uncertainties regarding global economic growth,” OPEC said in a monthly report.

“US oil supply is expected to average 10.07 million bpd in 2013, an increase of 0.37 million bpd over 2012. This increase will be the highest among all non-OPEC countries and at the highest annual level since 1986”, OPEC said.

According to the Reference case in the EIA’s 2011 International Energy Outlook, world crude prices are expected to be at $95 per barrel in 2015, $108 in 2020, and $125 by 2035. In last year’s report the agency also estimated world oil prices would be $95 in 2015, but expected $109 in 2020 and $134 by 2035.

From 2008 to 2035, the EIA projects total world energy consumption to rise by an average annual 1.6 percent in the Reference case. The EIA’s 2010 report projected total world energy consumption to rise by an average annual 1.4 percent between 2007 and 2035. Global oil consumption will climb to 109.7 million barrels a day by the end of the period. – SG/Agencies

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