Global gas output, consumption growth slows on weak economy

JEDDAH – Global natural gas production grew by 3.1 percent while consumption grew by 2.2 percent, BP said in its "Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012."

Consumption growth was below average in all regions except North America, where low prices drove robust growth. Outside North America, the largest volumetric gains in consumption were in China (+21.5 percent), Saudi Arabia (+13.2 percent) and Japan (+11.6 percent).

These increases were partly offset by the largest decline on record in EU gas consumption (-9.9 percent), driven by a weak economy, high gas prices, warm weather and continued growth in renewable power generation.

Global natural gas production grew by 3.1 percent. The US (+7.7 percent) recorded the largest volumetric increase despite lower gas prices, and remained the world’s largest producer. Output also grew rapidly in Qatar (+25.8 percent), Russia (+3.1 percent) and Turkmenistan (+40.6 percent), more than offsetting declines in Libya (-75.6 percent) and the UK (-20.8 percent).

The EU recorded the largest decline in gas production on record (-11.4 percent), due to a combination of mature fields, maintenance, and weak regional consumption. Following the general weakness of gas consumption growth, global natural gas trade increased by a relatively modest 4 percent in 2011.

LNG shipments grew by 10.1 percent, with Qatar (+34.8 percent) accounting for virtually all (87.7 percent) of the increase. Among LNG importers, the largest volumetric growth was in Japan and the UK. LNG now accounts for 32.3 percent of global gas trade. Pipeline shipments grew by just 1.3 percent, with declines in imports by Germany, the UK, the US and Italy offsetting increases in China (from Turkmenistan), Ukraine (from Russia), and Turkey (from Russia and Iran). Coal consumption grew by 5.4 percent in 2011, the only fossil fuel to record above average growth and the fastest-growing form of energy outside renewables.

Coal now accounts for 30.3 percent of global energy consumption, the highest share since 1969. Consumption outside the OECD rose by an above-average 8.4 percent, led by Chinese consumption growth of 9.7 percent.

OECD consumption declined by 1.1 percent with losses in the US and Japan offsetting growth in Europe.

Global coal production grew by 6.1 percent, with non-OECD countries accounting for virtually all of the growth and China (+8.8 percent) accounting for 69 percent of global growth. Global hydroelectric output grew by 1.6 percent, the weakest growth since 2003. Heavy rainfall drove strong growth in North America (+13.9 percent) - with the US recording the strongest increment on record - offsetting drought-related declines in Europe and China. Worldwide nuclear output fell by 4.3 percent, the largest decline on record, on the back of sharp declines in Japan (-44.3 percent) and Germany (-23.2 percent). Renewable energy sources saw mixed results in 2011. Global biofuels production stagnated, rising by just 0.7 percent or 10,000 barrels per day oil equivalent (b/doe), the weakest annual growth since 2000. Growth in the US (+55,000 b/doe, or 10.9 percent) slowed as the share of ethanol in gasoline approached the ’blendwall’, and Brazilian output had the largest decline in our data set (-50,000 b/doe, or -15.3 percent) due to a poor sugar harvest.

In contrast, renewable energy used in power generation grew by an above-average 17.7 percent, driven by continued robust growth in wind energy (+25.8 percent), which accounted for more than half of renewable power generation for the first time.

The US and China once again accounted for the largest increments in wind generation. Solar power generation grew even more rapidly (+86.3 percent), but from a smaller base. Renewable forms of energy accounted for 2.1 percent of global energy consumption, up from 0.7 percent in 2001.
 

Moreover, global oil consumption grew by a below-average 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d), or 0.7 percent, to reach 88 million b/d. This was once again the weakest global growth rate among fossil fuels. OECD consumption declined by 1.2 percent (600,000 b/d), the fifth decrease in the past six years, reaching the lowest level since 1995.

Outside the OECD, consumption grew by 1.2 million b/d, or 2.8 percent. Despite strong oil prices, oil consumption growth was below average in producing regions of the Middle East and Africa due to regional unrest. China again recorded the largest increment to global consumption growth (+505,000 b/d, +5.5 percent) although the growth rate was below the 10-year average. Middle distillates were again the fastest-growing refined product category by volume, for the seventh time in the past 10 years.

Annual global oil production increased by 1.1 million b/d, or 1.3 percent. Virtually all of the net growth was in OPEC, with large increases in Saudi Arabia (+1.2 million b/d), the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq more than offsetting a loss of Libyan supply (-1.2 million b/d).

Output reached record levels in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. Non-OPEC output was broadly fl at, with increases in the US, Canada, Russia and Colombia offsetting continued declines in mature provinces such as the UK and Norway, as well as unexpected outages in a number of other countries.
The US (+285,000 b/d) had the largest increase among non-OPEC producers for the third consecutive year. – SG/QJM

Driven by continued strong growth in onshore production of shale liquids, US output reached the highest level since 1998.

Global refinery crude runs increased by a below-average 375,000 b/d, or 0.5 percent. Non-OECD countries accounted for all the net increase, rising by 685,000 b/d. While OECD throughput declined by 310,000 b/d, US throughput increased (+110,000 b/d) and the US became a net exporter of refined products for the first time on record. Global refinery capacity utilization fell to 81.2 percent as global refining capacity increased by 1.4 million b/d (+1.5 percent), outpacing growth in throughputs for the fifth time in six years.

Global oil trade in 2011 grew by 2 percent, or 1.1 million b/d. At 54.6 million b/d, trade accounted for 62 percent of global consumption, up from 58 percent a decade ago. China accounted for roughly two-thirds of the growth in trade last year, with net imports (6 million b/d) rising by 13 percent.

US net imports were 29 percent below their 2005 peak.
Middle East countries accounted for 81 percent of the growth in exports last year. While crude oil accounted for 70 percent of global trade in 2011, refined products accounted for two-thirds of the growth in global trade last year. - SG/QJM