The Taleban have been able to build an insurgency that threatens elections three weeks away because of years of mishandling Afghanistan, Afghan analysts say.
While it may be too soon to judge the new US strategy of sending in more troops and aid to stem the mounting violence, the shift could be too late, with signs of a rift between the United States and Pakistan, observers say.
This year has seen record attacks since the Taleban were ousted in a US-led invasion in late 2001, even as the size of the international force has grown to more than 100,000.
And just weeks before Afghans vote for a new leader on August 20 in a milestone on its rocky road to democracy, July broke records as the deadliest month for foreign soldiers here with 75 killed. The spiralling conflict has led to new backing for negotiations with “moderate” Taleban – a position pushed by President Hamid Karzai for years.
British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, his country suffering heavy casualties in Taleban strongholds in the south, called last week for talks with militants “who can be reconciled to live within the Afghan constitution.”
Karzai has long urged respected Saudi King Abdullah to host talks with Afghan Taleban who are not part of Al-Qaeda. There has been no announcement on progress but Karzai’s office trumpeted as a sign of things to come a pre-election ceasefire that was reached with local Taleban in remote northwestern Badghis province last month. It raised hope that with the mediation of the Afghan elders “we will have great achievements in this regard,” his spokesman Siamak Herawi told AFP. “We are standing firm by our position which is to talk to Taleban. And we will use all methods that lead us to peace and stability,” he said, adding negotiations were also under way in an area of the south he would not name.
Taleban have, however, repeatedly refused to enter peace talks unless international troops leave. On Thursday the militia urged voters to boycott the elections and instead “free their invaded country” through holy war.
Prominent Afghan parliamentarian Daud Sultanzai said the new focus on talks “shows the weakness of the government.”
“The government has not been able so far to persuade the Taleban to (attend) talks,” he told AFP. “Why did it not reconcile with some Taleban leaders in the earlier years when it was possible to reconcile with them?” he asked.
Nasrullah Stanikzai, a professor of law and politics at Kabul University, said this was one of several errors made largely by the Western nations on which Afghanistan relies for aid, reconstruction and security.
“The West, when it toppled the Taleban, mistook the Taleban defeat for its elimination. It was a big mistake,” he said. He blamed foreign powers for defaulting on promises to reconstruct the war-shattered country, instead launching punishing military operations that took a high toll on civilians and alienated the population.
“The West’s wrong policies, their unjust approach in post-Taleban Afghanistan, helped the Taleban to reshape, recruit new fighters and offer something better than the government offered,” he added.
Backing powerful warlords with blood on their hands also sidelined more moderate Taleban affiliates who may have been open to talks.
“Back in 2001, lots of Taleban commanders could have been reconcilable,” said Stanikzai.
Haroun Mir, an analyst from the Afghanistan Centre for Research and Policy Studies, says foreign forces did not fill the void created after the 2001 toppling of the Taleban. The United States did not commit enough troops, then diverted resources and attention too quickly to Iraq.
“The Taleban were there, they found the villages empty and filled the vacuum right away and from there they managed to regroup,” Mir told AFP.
US President Barack Obama is this year sending in 21,000 more troops in a revamped strategy that also puts pressure on Pakistan to deal with Islamist bases on its side of the border. But analysts say troops in Afghanistan fall well short of the number outlined in US General David Petraeus’s counter-insurgency manual that had some success in Iraq. And respected author Ahmed Rashid said in a recent BBC article that a rift is growing between Washington and Islamabad over fighting the Taleban, including over claims that Pakistan’s military shelters Taleban leaders.
“The US strategy in Afghanistan cannot work, it is too late,” said Mariam Abou Zahab, an analyst at France’s Centre for International Studies and Research.
“The Taleban want to create more insecurity in order to deter people from voting,” said Zahab. – AFP