Opinion

Zimbabwe — tragedy waiting to reoccur

July 26, 2019



SEXTILLION (that is 20 zeroes) is not a number encountered frequently. But ten years ago, for 16 million Zimbabweans, sextillions, in fact almost 90 sextillions was the rate of runaway hyperinflation that destroyed the local currency along with the lives of any who were not within the magic circle of the despotic ruler, Robert Mugabe.

The short-term fix, which gave Mugabe a few more years in plundering power, was to adopt the US dollar. Almost overnight, a measure of stability returned with all-important confidence in the value of money and a steadying in the price of goods and services. Unfortunately for ordinary Zimbabweans, despite yet more promises from the flawed dictator, who kept suitcases stuffed with millions in foreign currency concealed around his various luxurious homes, there was no attempt to address the core failures of the economy. This was probably unrealistic since Mugabe himself had been responsible for bringing about the collapse of a once efficient, prosperous export-led economy. The seizure of white-owned farms was justified on the basis that the same land had been seized from their original owners by the early British colonialists. However, instead of continuing profitable production in black Zimbabwean hands, Mugabe parceled out the farms to incompetent cronies. Output, and with it the country’s export earnings, fell through the floor.

When Mugabe was ousted from power after 37 years in November 2017, his successor and former Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa promised change. But there were always strong reasons to doubt that the man who had been the ruthless enforcer of the ZANU-PF party that had misruled Zimbabwe since the ending of white-minority rule in 1980 was not sincere. Known as “the Crocodile”, Mnangagwa had led the disastrous campaign to seize farms and driver white farmers out of the country, even though they protested they were loyal Zimbabweans.

Last month Mnangagwa banned all foreign currency transactions and formally reintroduced the Zimbabwean dollar. Even before this move, inflation was beginning to take off and had reached 176 percent by June. Dubious elections last year and violence by security forces has kept Zimbabwean a pariah in terms of most international aid. The IMF has agreed to support the country with debt relief provided the government stops paying its bills by having the Central Bank print more money.

The country which once fed itself is heavily reliant of imports, not just for fuel but even for food. Because it cannot afford to pay for all of these, there are rising shortages. The main unions have been demanding steep pay rises which of course will merely contribute to inflation. In such circumstances, debt relief seems the least of the government’s pressing problems. The country needs root and branch political reform with a properly-elected government which will enjoy the confidence of the majority. ZANU-PF has a shameful record of corruption and incompetence. Its greatest achievement was to win the long and bitter struggle for independence. It would be an even greater achievement if it now recognized its failure and lack of ideas and allowed this once rich and flourishing country to breathe by demolishing the self-serving structures that have kept it in power and luxury. It needs to accept that replacing white minority rule with ZANU-PF minority rule has been a tragic disaster.


July 26, 2019
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