Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who faces a general election starting in 10 days time, has targeted voters with news that their country has become a “space superpower”. Last week, an Indian missile deliberately destroyed one of India’s own satellites. Modi hailed the Anti-Satellite (ASAT) test as proof the country was now one of the four global space superpowers.
The ability to destroy satellites was first demonstrated by the US in the1950s, Russia 1968 and then China in 2007. In the event of a major conflict, while rival powers will seek to monitor or disrupt each other’s vital communications and infrastructure via massive computer hacking operations, a key tactic may also be to destroy spy satellites which from high orbits are supposedly able to read a vehicle registration plate. As and when weapons systems are also put into orbit, ASAT technology will also be vital in attacking them. Moscow and Washington have also experimented with laser beams designed to blind surveillance satellites and with radio beams to jam communications devices.
The advantage of rendering a satellite temporarily inoperable clearly outweighs the consequences of destroying it. Though large space objects, including satellites, generally fall to earth and mostly burn up in the atmosphere, either on the command of their controllers or through failure, countless particles still remain in orbit. Indeed, there are already almost 130 million bits of debris going around in space. Even a grain-sized bit of space junk can cause damage to functioning satellites, for instance penetrating their essential solar power arrays. The risk to orbiting space stations or even to space-walking astronauts outside of them is becoming ever greater. Much research and investment has already gone into autonomous spacecraft that would vacuum up large quantities of these dangerous particles. Such devices could also, of course, be used to disable functioning satellites.
However, for the moment, creating yet more space debris could be seen as deeply irresponsible. Seven years ago, the then head of the Indian Defense Research and Development Organization recognized this when he revealed that while India possessed all the “building blocks” for an ASAT missile, it did not want to test it “because of the risk of space debris affecting other satellites”.
Yet last week Indian officials were claiming that because their ASAT test had blasted a low-orbiting satellite, all the resulting pieces would fall to earth and burn up within 45 days. US NASA scientists are not so sure and say they are monitoring 250 separate bits of debris from the destroyed Indian satellite. Of course for the Americans or Russians to now be so concerned about all the millions of items of orbiting junk is rich, since they are responsible for the majority of them.
Nevertheless, last week’s Indian ASAT test does seem unwise, not least because of its timing. Modi fears that he and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are on the electoral ropes. He has already sought to wrap himself in the nationalist flag by his air assault on Pakistan, deftly parried by Pakistani premier Imran Khan, who quickly returned a captured Indian pilot. Now Modi has tried to impress voters with more proof of India’s undoubtedly impressive space technology. However, they are more likely to have more pressing economic concerns, not least unemployment that has almost doubled in the last 12 months.
