During the winter, it used to be the case that the guns mostly fell silent in Afghanistan. Over more than 40 years, this country has been torn apart by conflicts in which upwards of two million people have been killed or maimed, the cold winter months were a time of preparation for the spring and summer fighting seasons.
No more. In recent years, the Taliban have not retired to their heartlands to rest and regroup. Indeed during this current winter, they have actually been stepping up their campaign of deadly assaults on Afghan security forces and civilian targets in major urban areas. The insurgents now control around half of the country.
In these circumstances, the latest peace talks between the Taliban and the US, held in Qatar, always seemed weighted against the increasingly beleaguered government of Afghan president Ashraf Ghani. On Tuesday, Ghani met the US negotiators in Kabul, where they reported on the outcome of the six days of their latest negotiations. It was not good news. The Taliban had not been prepared to concede even a limited ceasefire. Nevertheless, the head of the US team insisted the two sides had reached “agreements in principle” on key issues for a peace deal.
Such splendidly vague diplomatic language might have carried more weight had the Taliban been prepared to give some public demonstration of their commitment to a final peaceful ending to this terrible conflict. Even the smallest concession would have carried considerable weight. The fact that they do not appear to have given way on anything at all is surely a worrying sign. The Taliban leaders are now sure that they are winning. They know US President Donald Trump wants to bring the US military out of the country every bit as much as he wants to quit Syria, regardless of the disastrous regional consequences. Taliban negotiators were therefore sure when they sat down with the Americans that they were going to be pushing at an open door.
For them the future seems clear. The hated foreign troops will at last go, abandoning the government forces to their own fate. It will not be long before the Ghani administration will be left in control of a few major urban centers, and maybe not even these at night. At some point there will be major insurgent assaults on the presidential palace and key security bases and the government will collapse. The Talibs will resume their uncompromising rule. Meanwhile, those who oppose them will have escaped to the mountains and will, in their turn, begin a long and brutal assault on Taliban rule, first in the countryside and then finally in the major cities. The whole wretched, bloody cycle of devastating violence will continue.
The head of the US negotiating team probably understands and indeed feels the horror of this more than any of his colleagues. Zalmay Khalilzad is a Pashtun, born in Afghanistan, who became an exchange student in the US, won academic honors, chose American citizenship and went on to become a senior State Department official and is now Trump’s special envoy to his old country. The Taliban may abhor the values of the society Khalilzad joined but surely they can also see that he represents the ability of their country to actually transform itself, away from the endless misery and bloodshed.
