Iranian noise and babble: How will it end?

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“Much ado about nothing.” This expression precisely describes the state of the Iranian regime that has been struck with total paralysis since the re-imposition of American economic sanctions. The latest of these is the US slapping sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The poles of power in the Iranian regime of mullahs have been creating a lot of noise and commotion, claiming that their country will export its oil in defiance of US sanctions.

President Hassan Rouhani and the mullah regime’s foreign minister Muhammad Javad Zarif had great hopes that the European Union countries would take advantage of their strong relations with the US to get an exemption allowing them to continue dealing with Iran. Nothing of this kind has taken place because Europe cannot violate the American sanctions. And if they do, their companies dealing with Iran will be subject to penalties.

The Iranian commotion has not stopped since US President Donald Trump announced in May 2018 his decision to re-impose sanctions on Iran. However, the officials in Tehran were finally compelled last week to admit that they have failed to find any buyers for Iranian oil. Hence, the Iranian regime has now realized that the sanctions this time will not be similar to those in the past.

The reason is that Iranian oil exports have decreased by 40 to 60 percent since Trump’s May 2018 announcement. This also means that the sanctions will have a serious negative impact on the Iranian economy. In turn it will affect the lives of the Iranian people, who now feel the rule under the mullahs’ regime is similar to an occupation.

The US sanctions against Iran are justified and legitimate due to real fears for regional and global security, as Iran is following policies aimed at achieving hegemony, meddling in the affairs of other countries and expanding its influence to the largest possible area, even beyond the Middle East region.

Iran is continuing to act through its proxies and agents in the region, such as Hassan Nasrallah’s party, the Iranian proxies in Yemen – the Houthi militias, its traitor militias in Iraq and the Syrian regime that has permitted Iran to occupy Syria.

Iran uses these proxies to interfere in the affairs of others, as it is an expert in arousing sectarian sedition and discord and ripping to shreds the national cohesion of communities and peoples. Examples of this are past incidents in Bahrain and the continuing Iranian interference in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Syria.

I cannot understand the justification for this Iranian commotion. They know that the eight countries exempted by Trump from importing Iranian oil were not granted full exemption. The American understanding with those countries was based on the condition that they would boycott Iranian oil in stages, until they totally stop importing it. Some of these countries are regional and global powers that have mutual interests with the US, outweighing their need for Iranian oil and any relations with the pariah regime since its power grab in 1979.

Even Russia, which Iran has great hopes will continue to purchase 100,000 barrels of its oil, will not sacrifice its relations with OPEC and its non-OPEC oil producing allies in the region. Surely, Russia too is not ready to ignore its “complicated” relations with the US for the sake of a “holy” alliance with the mullahs of Tehran.

The helpless Iranian people must know that the re-imposition of American sanctions has actually led to a drop in Iranian oil exports from 2.4 million bpd during the last quarter to 1.3 million bpd at present. This means that the mullahs will not be able to provide all of the people’s needs including commodities and services. This will result in even more crises in the lives of the Iranian people and further drops in the exchange rate of the Iranian currency.

The mullahs know very well that the sanctions targeting their country’s oil will not affect world oil supplies, as Iranian oil forms barely 2 percent of global oil supplies. The absence of Iranian oil will not cause panic in the global oil markets or any rise in oil prices harming oil importers.

They know very well, like the hunger they can feel in their stomachs, that all their empty threats to close the Straits of Hormuz or smuggle their oil via Iraq, Turkey and Russia will be futile. The reason is that the whole world is united in its stance against the mullahs and their evil policies.

Undoubtedly, the main focus of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s eight-country tour in the region was to unify the stances toward undermining destructive Iranian policies, especially with Trump’s decision to withdraw American forces from Syria and attempts to bring back Syria, Iran’s close ally, to the Arab fold and specifically to its seat in the Arab League.

This means that Iran will find itself compelled to withdraw its extremist militias from Syria. Peace will be established in Yemen, whatever Iran does to obstruct the initiatives through its Houthi agents. This will be the last nail in the coffin of the mullahs’ regime that is threatening the Gulf countries and their Arab allies.

Iran’s other agent, Hassan Nasrallah of Lebanon, will find his plans and conspiracies being exposed and surrounded even further. With the increase and tightening of sanctions and international isolation, Tehran will have no choice but to comply with the requirements of “good conduct”, become a proper state and not a revolution, due to the people’s uprising to evict the mullahs.

The author is a Saudi writer. Follow him on Twitter: @JameelAlTheyabi


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