Now that we have entered 2019, it is natural to attempt to analyze the information that we have to determine what the new year holds in store for us.

America will remain a major driver of events, as it is the center of influence on the world’s politics and economy, but it will continue to face internal political polarization. President Donald Trump will enter into a violent confrontation with Congress, especially as investigations of thorny and inflammatory issues intensify.

The independent Mueller investigation extending to members of Trump’s family will have a negative impact on the ability of the president to devote himself fulltime to politics and to accomplish what he promised during his election campaign

China will experience an economic slowdown and will focus its attention on military and space projects to highlight its capabilities and flex its muscles in order to prove its worth in noneconomic fields. Europe will continue to suffer from the actions of extreme right-wing movements, which are driven by external forces sometimes from America and sometimes from Russia, both of whom harbor populist elements that would be pleased to see the downfall of the EU.

The Middle East will remain an unsafe area because of the presence of scattered terrorist groups, such as Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah, whose leaders are free and continue to spread their poison in various forms.

It is expected that Syria will experience a high rate of economic growth with the cessation of the war and the international efforts to rebuild it. These efforts of the international community are expected to significantly affect the economy of Iraq, Turkey and Lebanon, with the latter mainly functioning as a platform for the launching of projects.

Positive economic mobility in Africa will continue along with investment flows, especially in mega-infrastructure projects, mainly from China, Japan, South Korea and India. The Shanghai axis will increase its influence under the leadership of Russia, China and India, and will expand its geographical strength to test the West. There will be provocations for Ukraine, Georgia and the Baltic States as well as Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan and Vietnam.

Oil will not see a major boom, especially in the first quarter of the year with the absence of positive growth factors.

Talk of a major military strike against Iran remains exaggerated, although it will continue to receive specific “surgical” strikes on its most important allies, such as Hezbollah’s terrorist organization.

The Gulf Cooperation Council will remain unchanged, even as Qatar’s treachery against Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain will continue without any real retreat in that country’s political approach. Yemen will move toward stability, but it is linked to a geographical and political division, and therefore more than one country may result from this stability.

The Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) countries will produce some new political faces that will result in a change in management style. Sudan, which concluded last year in the headlines, may witness the birth of a new government, but not necessarily a new ruler.

In the new year amid signs of excitement, the region will continue in a state of tension and anxiety and conflict between those who live in the past and those who are trying to contribute to the future.