THE marking of the hundredth anniversary of the armistice that ended the brutal slaughter of the World War I has just been completed. The poisonous seed that was planted in Sarajevo 104 year ago with the murder the Hapsburg heir Archduke Franz Ferdinand, rapidly grew up into a conflict which saw some 40 million dead and wounded. And unfortunately, as the Balkans has since discovered to its own bitter cost, that original deadly plant threw off more toxic seeds which have since grown in their turn.
Kosovo is a small Balkans country with a population of barely two million. Twenty years ago, with support from NATO warplanes, Kosovo broke away from Serbia. It joined Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Montenegro and Macedonia as states that emerged from the wreckage of the former Serb-dominated Yugoslavia. In 2008, still protected by NATO troops, Kosovo decided to declare its independence. While 113 UN member states, including the Kingdom, now recognize Kosovo’s sovereignty, Serbia, along with its great champion Russia refused to accept its independence.
Serbia has long been seeking admission to the EU but Brussels has insisted that Belgrade first resolves its disputes with its neighbors. The quarrel with Kosovo, which has an ethnic Serbian minority, is stymying further progress of Serbia’s EU membership. There is also a feeling among EU states, not least France, that the Union currently requires no further expansion. There has been dismay in Brussels at issues of poor governance in Romania and Bulgaria, the most recent countries to accede to membership. Questions also remain over the integrity of Serbian politics with concerns about the deep state role of a criminal mafia that came into being among the military associated of ousted dictator Slobodan Milosevic. There is now growing evidence of links with Russia’s own powerfully-connected underworld.
Kosovo’s breakaway meant much more to the Serbs than a further loss of territory. The very name is redolent of Serbian national pride. Even though in 1389, a Serbian-led army was routed by the Ottoman Turks, the Battle of Kosovo is even now, seen as one of the most heroic moments in Serbian history.
Common sense and sheer self-interest ought to suggest that Serbian leaders bow to political reality and get on with doing whatever it takes to obtain the prosperity and security that EU membership should bring. But realpolitik is not a common feature in the Balkans, be it Greece bickering over Macedonia calling itself Macedonia or the Serbs refusing to accept the independent existence of Kosovo. Moscow, of course, is glad to foster these disputes, as away of dividing and weakening any threat from NATO and Europe. But Russia should tread carefully.
The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo was carried out by a Bosnian Serb, Gavrilo Princip. This crime caused Austria to declare war on Serbia. Russia backed Serbia and declared war on Austria after Hapsburg troops had advanced into Serbia. The catastrophic World War I had begun. But what is so disturbing is that, as proven by the recent atrocities of Srebrenica and elsewhere, the savage instincts, particularly of the Serbs, have not gone away. Indeed, the Balkans remains a raw mesh of nerves exposed by humiliations, defeats and vendettas reaching back hundreds of years. Disturbingly, a region so fixated on its past surely blocks its view of the future.
