Opinion

Renew Afghan ceasefire

June 25, 2018

ON June 17, there was a suicide attack by Taliban near Nangarhar governor’s compound in Afghanistan, killing at least 18 people and wounding another 49. Is it not the kind of things Taliban have been doing ever since America invaded their country in 2001?

Yes. Still it has attracted a lot of attention for two reasons. One, it

belies the claim by Lt. Gen. Austin Scott Miller, commander of the US forces in Afghanistan, that there is “progress” in the war against Taliban and an assorted group of insurgents. Second and most important, Taliban launch a major offensive on the last day of a three-day truce they declared to coincide with the Afghan government's 10-day ceasefire for Eid Al-Fitr

Last week there were other incidents indicating that the Taliban are on the offensive and most attacks across the country are initiated by them rather than the Afghan Army. What is more, they spurned Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s offer of another weeklong ceasefire which could last as long as one year.

The same defiance was seen in Taliban’s rejection of Ghani’s ambitious peace plan which he unveiled in February this year. The besieged president offered an immediate ceasefire and unconditional talks, along with political recognition, issuing passports, relocation of their families and a release of prisoners. The only reply he has received so far is a string of deadly attacks, leaving a trail of bloodshed.

This is in spite of the fact that the US has stepped up airstrikes in support of anti-insurgent ground and air operations by Afghan forces under President Donald Trump’s new war strategy. Trump has also put more American boots on the ground.

True, increased US bombings are killing the militants but air strikes or drone warfare affect civilian too. According to UN figures published in February, a rise in the number of undiscriminating attacks last year contributed to more than 10,000 civilian casualties, including nearly 3,500 killed. Of course, most of the casualties were caused by insurgent action, but Afghans will blame it on the continuing failure of American-led efforts to stabilize the country.

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Another worry is the high casualties among Afghan security forces. The strength of the security forces has declined sharply over the past 12 months, a US government watchdog has said. Compounding the problem, between a quarter and a third of the Afghan Army and the police desert every year.

In short, 17 years after US invaded the country, Afghanistan is moving inexorably toward a stalemate. According to US estimates, government forces control less than 60 percent of Afghanistan, with the remainder either contested or under the control of the insurgents.

By now US knows well it can’t win the war and Taliban know they can’t prevail over the world’s strongest army. So the only way out is talks. Taliban have made it clear they will not talk with the Ashraf government which they consider an American puppet. Trump says US will only consider talking to the Taliban if it sees real change in the security situation on the ground.

The question is why should US talk to Taliban if the security situation improves. Taliban on its part should consider whether it is in Afghans’ interest to allow this lawless situation to continue.

The three-day ceasefire was the first taste of peace Afghans have had in decades. They have seen how it allowed fighters on both sides to safely visit family in places normally much too dangerous to enter. The calm of Eid Al-Fitr is a reminder of the peace that Afghanistan could have, and that has greatly bolstered popular support for a more lasting period of peace, leading to proper negotiations.

People all over the world will share King Salman’s hope that the ceasefire would be renewed and built upon for a longer period so that all parties could work together to achieve lasting peace for the Afghan people.


June 25, 2018
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