Opinion

Inscrutable China?

February 27, 2018

IT seems almost certain that China’s constitution will be changed to allow President Xi Jinping a third consecutive five-year term. Deng Xiaoping’s radical economic reforms enshrined in the 1982 constitution also sought to build in a limit of 10 years to the presidency. In actual fact power rests with the chairmanship of the Communist party, which Xi already holds, to which there is no set time limit. He is also chairman of the Central Military Commission, a position which again has no limitation on its tenure.

Besides unleashing China’s remarkable economic growth of the last 30 years, Deng sought to avoid the appearance of another capricious “emperor” in the style of Mao Zedong. He wanted to vest power in the Communist party and ensure that it was revitalized with fresh leadership at the very most after a decade. Deng’s reforms also permitted the emergence of powerful regional leaders who vied for economic dominance and thus political influence.

Chinese media have denied that a third term for Xi would represent a return of a Mao-style “emperor”. But the logic of Xi’s holding the presidency until at least 2028 is that the centralization of power in Beijing will continue. Xi’s own reforms were informed by the concern that the rise of regional power bases was increasingly challenging the authority of the party. Historically China’s stability has been bedeviled by the emergence of regional warlords who have defied and often rebelled against the central government.

Since he became president in 2013, Xi has put a sharp brake on the growth of regional power bases. His method has been to launch a ruthless drive against corruption. Local party bosses have been brought low in a series of trials which have revealed bribery scandals that have included murder. In one respect this crackdown on a system that was inherently wide open to abuse was launched to protect the reputation of the Communist party itself. But more importantly from Xi’s point of view was that the campaign saw the removal of political rivals. More recently it has also seen the removal of senior military commanders and their replacement by a new cadre of officers seen as Xi loyalists.

Last month, the party’s Central Committee debated another move which would seem certain to bolster Xi’s power. The plan is to set up a new Ministry of State Supervision. Xi’s administration has already been notable for its clampdown on freedom of expression — a freedom notionally enshrined in Deng’s 1982 constitution. This pushback is now likely to be given even sharper teeth with a ministry devoted entirely to the management of the every day life of Chinese citizens. It is perhaps significant that even with the existing controls on Chinese society, such a ministry is deemed necessary. Its enabling legislation will make interesting reading.

Often now referred to in state media as “Papa Xi”, the Chinese leader would appear to believe that his job of cleaning up corruption and bringing all the reins of power back to Beijing is far from over. It is also notable that “Xi Jinping Thought” is being added to the Communist Party’s doctrinal charter.

The outside world always knew that China was different but welcomed its astonishing economic progress as the start of a more open face to the international community. Will Xi’s new powerful tenure represent a return to Chinese inscrutability?


February 27, 2018
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